When a Hegemon feels trapped by a challenge, the conditions are ideal for mutual escalatory interaction to set up a war especially if the challenger has felt humiliated in the past. The question was posed yesterday as to whether China’s challenge could become substantially threatening (even psychologically) to the US so, as to create a condition for a war that could ignite under an unpredictable incident.
It is important to compare the history of the two countries. The US is a country not even a quarter of a millennium old, as compared to China that relies on 5 millennia of history.
It is a western country that is imbued with beliefs in liberty, equality and freedom of speech and is, or was willing to integrate, a large number of immigrants. China is monolithically ethnic, has always been deprived of political freedom but has been seasoned in hierarchical acceptance.
The present hold of the Chinese communist party, an unchallenged political party of some 90million active members rests its appeal not on coercion, as sometimes believed, but on the appeal of nationalistic pride and the delivery of increasing prosperity for its people. It has policies of continuity. On the other side the US is subject to the vagary of periodic elections and the policies, as demonstrated recently, can oscillate violently between administrations.
Historically the US has been a belligerent country that at times used its might to expand its territory both in north America and abroad, that helped the victory of democracies in two world wars and that has, during less troubled times, proved, even in generous terms, a very mediocre policeman. Its biggest weakness is to think in the words of Henry Kissinger that American principles are universal and, any country that does share such beliefs becomes illegitimate in the US. (a revisit of the missionary who thinks his faith is the only one). On the other hand, China has historically limited its territorial ambitions to the regions that it considered Chinese and has historically sought to defend them. It does not seek to conquer other countries in Asia but after being dominant regionally both in economic terms and military might requires respect (the importance of the face). The army is to fight and win if vital interests are threatened or attacked.
Today, China is seeking to regain its place in the world and discard its humiliated past. The US has slowed down, it has probably passed its apogee and longs for past glories.
Whereas the US like a pain killer addict, will want to solve immediately a problem or a fear it detects, the Chinese distinguish between urgent problems and long-term problems that can only be solved when certain conditions develop. Think of the present US insistence on Iran to abandon a treaty that could have postponed the issue, into times when a softer regime could have emerged.
The biggest danger of a war will be the China Sea, the freedom of navigation, and the militarisation of the area. As time goes the Chinese will increase their defensive positions in the China Sea area creating forts, ports and deploying an increased naval force. Their aim will be to increase the danger to foreign navy vessels to challenge their supremacy in those areas by increasing their zone free risk perimeter. Just as the US contained the USSR by raising the threshold of technology, the Chinese will raise the mass of defensive warfare so, as to render that area impervious to attacks with conventional means.
It is unlikely that the US will ever contemplate and effect a pre-emptive strike, but what they can do is retard the economic growth of China and therefore its armaments. This is may be why we are today witnessing the tariff wars. But could the Thucydides trap operate somewhere else?
Digenis