I was recently strongly recommended a book written by a Harvard history professor whose main theme was the dangers of a future war between the US and China. The book is called: “Destined for War” Through analysis of past wars including of course the war between Athens and Sparta, he illustrates how the boiling conditions that ensue when a dominating power is confronted by a rapidly growing competitor and military might is used as a means of containment by one and a challenge by the other . Whereas I feared it might be a Trumpian trumpet, it proved to be a highly interesting non-partisan book.
In this case the Hegemon is the United States that has not been challenged since the fall of the Berlin wall almost thirty years ago and the challenger is China the country that has experienced the fastest ever economic growth in the same interval. Although in terms of absolute GDP, the US is still the leader, China has now reached its competitor in terms of Purchasing Power Parity. Moreover China that was decimated by the Occidental powers through the Opium wars and later partly occupied by Japan has risen from the ashes under the guide of the Chinese communist party. One has therefore on the part of the challenger a humiliation to be erased or in the eyes of some revenged and on the other hand a fear from the challenged country to be overtaken by a political system which is diametrically opposite to its own which believes in free speech and democracy. With increasing wealth, there is a corresponding increasing need for defense. At some point wealth brings arrogance and the defense function becomes converted into an offensive weapon. Today we are witnessing an increase in the armament of China, a determined action to militarize the islets in the China Sea. Are these the seeds of a future war or are they the play of the match some 125 years ago between Great Britain and the United States?
Just as America emerged on the world stage near the turn of the 20th century, Roosevelt as a secretary of the Navy (draw the parallel with Churchill 20 years later) embarked in a massive fleet building that would dissuade Britain whose influence was waning in the Western hemisphere to engage into a war with its former colony. It would also enable it to remove Spanish presence in this area and the Pacific. With the annexation of a strategic zone in Panama which it had helped to secede from Colombia, the US not only realized the fulfilment of the Monroe doctrine that foresaw the need for the US to control the northern part of the Western Hemisphere but he achieved strategic domination of some half of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans that bordered the nation. As a dividend it enabled the rapid economic development of the West Coast.
Are we witnessing something similar today with the accession to power of Xi Ji Ping at the crucial moment when the two powers are reaching some balance in their economic power? The expressed goals of the Chinese are very clear: by 2050, China is to be the dominating global power. On its path it is becoming quickly a technological leader in renewable energy, electric cars and searching battery dominance. It seeks to urbanise by 2025 70% of its population so close to 1 billion people. By 2030 it seeks to be the leader in artificial intelligence. It is developing its silk road by making investment in resources in Africa to secure raw materials and in infrastructure along that road to strengthen its distribution. Greece itself has witnessed the benefits of the Chinese investments in the port of Piraeus where container traffic has risen tenfold from 2008 to now to over 5 million containers a year.
The real question is whether we are going to witness the rise of a dominant economic power or the maturing of a conqueror? Can we contain its military might? We will revisit shortly the issue.
Digenis