Sometimes the Hegemon loses side of priorities and risks and find himself embroiled in a conflict that was never envisaged. Witness the chain of alliances that resulted in WWI after the assassination of the Archduke of Austria. Could something untoward happen in the Middle East?
For a long time, the problems in Syria where Turkish, Russian, Hezbollah fought with other forces gathering Syrians, Kurds and Christians backed by Americans to dislodge Isis, while the Syrians tried to dislodge freedom fighters that were trying to escape from the Assad dictature. It was often thought that a serious international regional mini world war could develop. Somehow the American appetite was not there and after the defeat of Isis the Assad regime regained control of most of the terrain.
However another spine has surfaced in this troubled region. The predictable unpredictable US President, who cannot resist some action from which he can elicit more votes, denounced the international accord limiting Iranian production of nuclear fuel signed by the US, its allies and both Russia and China and at the same time with the praise of Israel and its new Arab friends imposed a series of sanctions destined to break the regime.
As the extent of the sanctions was ratcheted up, some incidents started to occur. They ranged from drones flying over military installations, rockets hitting official buildings or even snippet mines holing tank ships waiting to be loaded. Although the finger was pointed to Iran it was firmly denied by the Authorities. A few weeks later around mid -June two ships were attacked after passing the Straight of Hormuz and one has actually sunk, while the other, a Japanese ship only suffered minor holes near its waterline. The irony was that his occurred during the official visit of the prime minister of Japan to Iran. Of course the mullahs denied any Iranian intervention. Could it have been a provocation from a third party or was it a clever double game by the hosts. Washington released videos of a fast launch boat purported to be Iranian removing some of those magnetic snippet bombs. To fake or not to fake!
A few days later an unmanned gigantic US drone was downed this time officially by the Iranians. Whereas the US said it was in international waters it was reported on the other side that the interception occurred in territorial waters.
A day later to the world stupor Mr. Trump announced that he had recalled a manned bombing mission some ten minutes after the attackers had taken off. The trap was narrowly averted. But following renewed pressure and a total resistance from Iran, it may be that the pressure becomes too big to prevent a deterioration. What if the whole gulf erupted and Russia and Israel intervened. The US would certainly be caught in.
This administration plays a dangerous game by reneging on many international accords, by losing the trusts of its allies. In search of increased electoral support, It appeals to the lowest instincts of the most unsophisticated voters and creates a climate of hate that will eventually force the administration to take more dangerous positions. Let us pray.
In my investigations of the incidents I came across a very interesting conference given some 4 years ago by Kevin Rudd the former Australian prime minister who has known president XI. It interestingly was relating the Thucydides trap to the US and China and how to avoid war. He gave an example of his policy towards the Aborigines as he excused publicly the country for their treatment. To him this Thucydides trap can be defused as he says with the heat not hate.
Here is the link and think about it and let us hope the trap does not land us in an unpredictable international conflict
Digenis