Koumoundouros Voice, two weeks ago carried an analysis of GREXIT and BREXIT calling them parallel accidents of irresponsibility and spite. GREXIT lingered ominously on the dark horizon of Europe, for one and a half year, largely due to a clear inability of the Tsipras government to comprehend the way in which Europe operates, or indeed understand the essentials of the Greek crisis.
The first Act of the drama was the Varoufakis farce. The second contained the triple accident of a year ago: Informal bankruptcy of the Greek State; closure of the Greek banks to pre-empt their own bankruptcy; an incomprehensible referendum, with a massive NO to the European proposal, which Tsipras magically interpreted as YES, signing a 4th Memorandum with our creditors. It took him another 8 months to arrive at the end of the 2nd Assessment and get the first trance of the money. This awful joke cost Greeks an estimated 120 billion euros, after the long awaited recovery was killed two months after its birth.
BREXIT was written on the plaque of fate by Cameron himself in 2015, mainly as a political manoeuvre to secure support of right-wing Conservatives, to his second term as PM. In a way, it was a trick of domestic politics, which Tsipras imitated in a subtler and more confused way few months later. Cameron resigned immediately after the NO vote, which he fought during the campaign, strangely dissociating himself from the fact that he had triggered off the referendum. The pound fell to it lowest since 1985. It remains to be seen how much the British will lose in economic terms alone.
For, the political losses will be far greater. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted for Europe. It is only natural that their underlying wish to both, become independent and remain in Europe, will receive a fresh impetus. The game is quick to learn: solve your domestic political problems through a referendum – even without having a Swiss Constitution.
What will be the balance of the international political power of Britain, before and after quitting the EU? It is hard to calculate, but not difficult to guess that it will be negative.
The final question is: what will be the balance for the remaining EU? Centrifugal power is contagious, particularly under the impact of the refugee crisis and terrorism. Austria and – in a different way Poland and Hungary – have challenged the spirit of Union. Germany, with its rigid stance on austerity and blatant display of economic power, does not promote the tolerance and solidarity, which are the necessary ingredients of a multi-national Union.
Europe can only face the crisis by a leap forward, towards more integration. We have made this claim before. Europe must either become a Federal Union or continue the impossible muddle-through of the present, which is an unrealistic prospect. There is now an increased prospect that the business as usual scenario leads to dissolution. Europe must think hard and either move forward with a Federal Solution, which was the aim of the Founding Fathers, or go down in history as a utopian exercise of horse-trading by member-states, which blew themselves to pieces.
Maximos