As Georgia reopens under general disapprobation, even that of President Trump, who suddenly realizes he has called the shots too early, one should take in perspective what has happened in countries that were hit by the pandemic earlier. We have plotted the timeline of active cases of various countries that have or are presently undergoing the epidemic, namely China where the epidemic has been overcome, Korea which is at the end of its fight, Italy and Greece who are on the road to recovery and the US, which is anxious to reopen its doors for business.
As we write, the active cases, that is to say the reported cases that are still infected are in Korea: 1783, Greece: 1843, Italy: 106,527 and the US: 762,421. For the graph to be representative of the phases, the actual values of the other countries were normalised to enable a comparison of the stage of progress against the epidemic. For China because the epidemic was concentrated in Wuhan, we used as the relevant population factor the population of the Hebei province which is estimated to be 67.5 Million.
This chart is in function of active cases normalised by population
- US factor 1 actual active cases
- Greece factor 29.864 actual active cases X Greek Factor
- Korea factor 6.5 actual active cases X Korean Factor
- Italy factor 5.63 actual active cases X Italian Factor
- China factor 4.9 actual active cases X China Factor
The China active case curve is typical of a bell-shaped curve of an epidemic that has been tamed. The lockdown started from 23 January to 8 April 2020, lasting 2 months and 16 days. Whereas the Italian curve appears to plateau the US curve is still on its upward course. The Korean and Greek curves are so small in absolute numbers, even when normalised, that we had to change the multiplying factor so that their shape could be more visible and so we changed the factors.
We multiplied the factor by another 5 times for Greece and Korea. The Korean active case curve is now visible and shows that the epidemic is almost extinct. The Greek active case curve has reached its apex. Given the rapid fall in infection cases in the past days we would have expected for the curve to have already bent down. This may be because the number of people having recovered at home has yet to be tallied.
NY State Governor Cuomo, whose state has about one third of the cases, is very much aware of the problem of stopping the lockdown prematurely. His daily conference which can be watched on CNN at 18.30 Greek time is highly informative as it is accompanied by many slides. The slide which we reproduce below, from a photograph of the TV screen illustrates what could happen if the social distancing measures were eliminated now. A second wave of epidemic of greater intensity would ensue, accompanied by excessive demand for ICU beds, and proportionately even more deaths. This would necessitate a second shutdown, which in turn would create a much more severe economic disruption than that occasioned by the extension of the present lockdown. Governor Cuomo has stated several times that saving lives is more important than economic considerations.
His daily conferences are widely watched within political circles and have inspired the President to take a risible I beg your pardon, visible role in the Coronavirus combat in organizing his own daily conference. Presumably, Georgia’s Governor Brian Kemp or one of his aids watches both and he is well aware of the issue. Nevertheless, having decided to reopen the State for business. Kemp issued an executive order Monday allowing gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios (in plain English tattoo parlors), barbers, cosmetologists, nail technicians and beauty schools to reopen Friday. Theaters, private social clubs, and dine-in restaurants can reopen Monday with some restrictions. Even if they follow social distancing orders this goes against every anti epidemic principle. Meanwhile the Covid-19 cases are rising 4 times since the beginning of April stand at over 22,000 and on a population proportional basis at over 10 times that of Greece. Whereas the 58.3% of the population is white and spread around the state, the African Americans representing about 32% are concentrated in metropolitan areas, in particular, Atlanta. Although the ethnicity of the cases reported is not well tallied, the Black community accounts for 64% of the fatalities.
Yet, Kemp denied any political motive when confronted with accusations that his reopening order was a coordinated move in support of President Trump. For those that followed Trump’s conferences, you would have noticed that he approved the move on Tuesday, only to recant himself the next day. If his concern were the economic welfare balanced by a concern for the wealth of the citizens, he would have consulted with the mayors off his principal cities, which he did not, as they were democrats and mostly African American. On various interviews, they reported being flabbergasted at not having been consulted.
We have reproduced above the results off the 2016 US presidential election and one can observe that the place where democrats scored matches exactly the areas where there is a concentration of African American population. We trust that Governor Kemp’s calculation is not based on a rationale that even if cases were going to go up they would affect disproportionately the cities, whereas the country which is predominantly white, would benefit from the early reopening of the economy with a marginal health risk. The readers can draw their own conclusions.
The Republican party is playing a dangerous game if it continues to follow the policies of its right wing. Today just over half of the population under 15 is non-white. If they continue their covert racist policy, it is only a matter of time until they no longer can operate as one of the two main parties.
The media have too much used the term flatten the curve and it has created false interpretation amongst politicians and false expectations in the public. Social distancing makes the epidemic less intense, i.e. an infection curve that has a lower peak. However, it does not mean that when the infection curve has reached its apex, the problem has been overcome. When the infection rate becomes 1/10th of the maximum rate the point is well below the top and a large section of patients has recovered. At that point, one can start to breathe and loosen the restrictions. Moreover, as it is becoming more evident, there is a considerable number of asymptomatic infected individuals that are roaming dangerously among the sane population. These people should be identified and isolated. Should one open the door suddenly, without having tested a large part of the population, the epidemic will rage again. Governors, forget politics, test, trace and treat before you pull the trigger.
| By Digenis | 27/4/2020 |