Europe in general seems to have just passed over the Apex in terms of contamination and – there we are – at the twilight of some partial relaxation. Even though the US is much more behind the curve than Europe, the frenetic pressures of certain extremists have forced even the more moderate to join the debate. Fortunately, the scientists, who are finally listened to, are able to temper the impatience with some recommendations of timely prudence. Greece for its part appears one of the countries very much advanced in the curve.
The biggest threat, that of overwhelming the hospital capacity, has been brilliantly avoided by the early preventive measures that have been not only enforced, but surprisingly well adhered to by the people. For once the mind prevailed! Out of the 800 ICU units available 76 only are presently occupied by COVID-19 patients, which means, that taking into account regular ICU patient figures (1/3 of total capacity) over 400 beds are available, a substantial safety margin in case of a recrudescence in cases. It is over a month that all cafes, bars, museums, shopping centres, sports facilities and restaurants in the country were closed and over 3 weeks that all non-essential movements throughout the country were banned. The reported new cases are now trickling at a rate of under 30 a day compared with rates of several thousands in many countries. For sure, there must be still a few hundred asymptomatic cases in the country, and they contaminate more people every day. But as time passes, even those wandering creatures become non-contagious. It has also become apparent that the number of tests has been increasing, but we are still analogously half-way below the rate of Germany.
We can imagine that the government authorities in charge of controlling the virus are well aware of those facts and may be finalising plans for a progressive relaxation of some of the restrictions. It is clear that the staying home and movement limit policies have worked. Time has shown that the people most at risk are the elderly, especially those with underlying conditions, such as respiratory problems, heart condition, obesity, diabetes and cancers. The younger ones are not immune either, but it will take time to analyze what the underlying weaknesses are. On a geographic basis many areas of Greece are untouched or with very few reported cases. The question must be how does one introduce a progressive reduced restriction of movement and confinement without risking to create a large second wave that would result in a shutting down of the country during the summer?
One should find ways to minimize this risk.
Certain parts of the country with low population density, such as provinces or islands that have not been touched by the epidemic could be reopened but at the same time isolated from the more affected areas, as the more densely populated cities. Strict controls of all access roads and ports will be necessary to keep the unrestricted areas safe
It is obvious that, if the elderly are kept in confinement, it averts a big potential load to the emergency hospital capacity. Whether this is a voluntary self-discipline or a regulated measure, is something to evaluate? One possibility would be to transfer them to their summer homes or to relatives in the provinces.
No doubt the task force charged with setting up a progressive plan to restart the economy has already a well sketched strategy, which probably is drawn into gradual phases
- Within the most affected areas some priorities will be elaborated to gradually reopen the building industry, the factories, the commercial activities and the small businesses.
- One of the criteria will be the ability to conduct the activity from home.
- Priority will be given to the most essential activities to kickstart the economy such as exporting industries and the delivery of supplies.
- Economic help should be given to small tech companies. In this regard many young Greeks have returned to Greece because of the epidemic. Many are very skilled and it is an opportunity to keep them here.
- Some thoughts have to be given to the possibility to restarting tourism in certain locations. Should it be concentrated on luxury tourism in the most fashionable places like Mykonos or Santorini. As the air access is direct, quarantine zones could be established after which tourists would be free to circulate through the whole island. Older people should be discouraged from international travel.
More than anything, intensive testing Is essential to restart the economy, which means that not only test kits are needed but also sufficient laboratories to process them. Additionally, most of the tests to identify the presence of the virus in an individual, need to be processed in a laboratory, which means that, short of keeping the person tested in quarantine, a positive tested individual is likely to infect many people before the results are available. A saliva test has just been developed by Rutgers University and approved earlier this week by the US Food and Drug Administration. It is expected to dramatically accelerate the number of people that can be screened. It could reduce the time between test and result down to 2 days. Unless it can be produced here under license, it is unlikely to be available in Greece for the foreseeable future. Germany or Korea may be more secure sources for reliable conventional tests.
Finally, there are antibody tests that with 90% reliability can evidence that an individual has had the virus and that at least for the foreseeable future he is safe for others. This could also come under international guidelines and certification, a passport for safe entry as tourist.
The amount of testing will define how much the economy can be reopened as invariably there will be isolated pockets, which will need to be quickly identified. Once a case is located, it will be necessary to track all his contacts within the previous week and test them. All positive cases will have to be isolated and if necessary entire areas, so as to avoid a second wave of epidemic, which could not only overwhelm the hospitals but result in costly second shutdown.
Until there is a vaccine available, which may take more than a year, we are all at the mercy of this virus, which means that hygiene, social distancing, adequate working conditions etc.… will have to be strictly maintained. The economy will have to adapt and we too.
| By Digenis | 18/4/2020 |