At least 85,035 new Covid-19 cases were reported in the United States on Oct. 23 breaking the record of 75,687 cases in a single day.

Over the past week, there have been an average of 64,297 cases per day, an increase of 35 percent from the average two weeks earlier. We are still below the peak 7-week average of 66,000 that occurred during the July peak. There were 925 new coronavirus deaths but fortunately they are below the 1200 average that was prevalent in the summer peak.

Whereas during  the first peak the virus cases were concentrated mainly in cities and suburbs, the current surge reveals a much more  geographically diversely spread as it is battering hard remote counties whose infrastructure  lack hospitals  or adequate health care  centers. Since late summer, per capita case and death rates in rural areas have outstripped those in metropolitan areas.

New reported deaths by day in the United States, 7-day average

(in 10/million)  

When Covid-19 hits the Fan

Source New York Times

Even though there is a resurgence of cases in the Eastern Seaboard, cases are rising precipitously in the Midwest and Rocky Mountains.

We reproduce below some graphs from the New York Times that illustrates the dramatic burst of new cases in the recent weeks.

The graphs show the timeline of cases plotted over time against the number of cases gradient. We have added another very interesting indicator which reflects the intensity of the spread per unit population.  The US average is 25,741 cases per Million population. Except for Montana and Wyoming all these other states have a concentration of cases far larger than the US average. What is alarming, is that the rate of contamination is increasing dramatically. As can be seen on the graphs. The percent increase in daily cases over two weeks is over the average national increase of 34%. Apart from Wisconsin which is run by a Democratic governor all other states are much more sparsely populated and run by Republican governors. All these states have traditionally been Republican strongholds. Wisconsin so neglected by Hillary Clinton that never visited the State during her campaign is expected to return to its democratic base.  However, Trump is so much ahead in all the other states that even if the cases were doubling in the next 10 days it would not make a dent. The sad irony is that those states comprise a less educated population spread in rural areas.

 The most illustrative example is Wyoming where Trump is ahead by 35% in the polls.  Although the 10th largest state by area, it is the least populous state. Its total population of 578,759 would rank as the 32 largest US city if its entire population were packed in a single metropolis. Its state capital, Cheyenne, has about 65,000 inhabitants barely making the 500 list of largest US cities.

Looking at the table above one can observe that the capital Cheyenne is not one of the foci off the epidemic Only the city of Laramie is well above the state average. What this table shows is how the virus has been able to spread in the rural areas which makes its so difficult to extinguish. The last daily increase of 326 cases between the the 23rd and 24th of October points to a continuing exponential increase of cases. This epidemic is unlikely to be smothered before the election and in any case would not affect the results in that state. However, if the pundits fear that a winter recrudescence of cases is realized, the population of these faithful followers of the President will be further severely affected.

The irony is that this wildfire is occurring in states where the vast majority of the population lives in rural areas, lacks proper information and was Foxnews brainwashed to think the virus was a hoax.  They believed in God, unconditionally trusted Trump, and never wore a mask! Even though the proverbial fan has been hit by this corona-tsunami, they will vote for Trump in a week’s time.

Meanwhile the epidemic will run its full course spreading in absence of sufficient testing, tracing, and isolating until it has run of juice. This may become the ultimate test of herd immunity but at what cost. What a betrayal and sad legacy of ignorance, cynicism, and willful deceit by a President. History’s judgement will be harsh.

By Digenis21 October 2020

Read also: The Covid respiratory trails

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